Tuesday, September 4, 2007

Dada's Quiz! Week 1

hOw mANy kNOW U?

Q 1 Recently a Mumbai based coaching classes received a FDI , a first of its kind in India? Which firm received the FDI, which firm invested (organisation and country) and what amount?

Q 2 Which firm owns the job portal Naukri.com? and it has recently launched two new portals, name them?

Q 3 In one of the largest acquisition by a Indian health care company, Apollo Health Street (AHS), recently bought which overseas firm and for what amount?

Q 4 The Montreal protocol and the Kyoto protocol are defined under different aegis of the United Nations. Name them?

Q 5 The Citigroup in India, has come out with a unique ATM facility for lower income class and rural customers in India, what is it?

Q 6 On passing of a new competition bill in 2007 what is set to replace the MRTPC (Monopolies and restrictive trade practices commission)

Q 7 The legend behind this toy originated when in 1902, an American president on a hunting trip refused to shoot an old – she bear, who had been cornered. This was made famous by a cartoon in Washington Post, which inspired a novelty store owner to come up with this toy. Which and why was it named so? (nice one)

Q 8 The name of this search engine was inspired by a poem written more than 800 years ago during the reign of the Song Dynasty, and which literally means hundreds of times. Which?

Q 9 Which was the first wholly Indian made commercial and who sang the Jingle for it? (nice one)

Q 10 Which Brand's logo, in the form that it appears on its products, always weighs 0.38 grams and it is the surest sign of the authenticity of the product? (Super one)


A new quiz would be put up every week and the answers of the old quiz will be posted as comments on the date of upload of the new quiz.

flurry awayw with answers by creating a comment to this...


Dwaitin Dave
Final Year PGDM, Global Business
NMIMS, Mumbai

Upload ur stuff!

Greetings!

Well I thought there could be quite a few of us who had loads of material to put up, but this data was in formats viz pdf, doc, xls and so on, but on blog u cannot keep downloadable stuff! So I have opened an account with a free online space provider. With this all you guys now need to do is just put a brief forward on ur write-up in the post and mail me the softcopies of the dtuff u want to post...following that I'll post the link to the shared space of ur research below ur post! Easie weezie for u! No formatting jhanghat while posting!

So this should be pretty convenient and fast for u guys to send all ur research and tht too in truck-loads!


Step 1: u get to make posts urself! just mail me ur info + writeup detail then ASAP I'll mail u an invite so that u too can create ur own posts on the blog. And then!!! ur as much a part of the blog creation as I am! Trashbrothers!

OR

Step 1: U send me a comment to this post having ur write-up on it and mail me ur documents
Step 2: I convert the comment into a post and in the post give the link to the place where everyone can download ur files from (still working on how to make it a post automatically and not a comment)
Step 3: U happy me Happy!


Ya I know the latter is more of snail mail..but Im working on how to make the process more smoother. Also, I advise that u put ur name and email id in the document u send for uploading, so that u get ur deserved credit!

For eg. my article can be accessed at http://www.4shared.com/dir/3778361/647fdd10/sharing.html

Here u will see a screen having files on the page, then u "click on the file u want to download" not below where upload option is given then u go to another page where ur downloading facilitation takes place..

Do let me know if there are any problems/ improvements possible in this method of sharing...

Staaart traaashing!

Sunday, September 2, 2007

Arbitrage opportunities of a Fully Paid vs. Partly Paid Equity Share


Arbitrage opportunities of a Fully Paid vs. Partly Paid Equity Share

While a super majority of the shares listed in the Indian Markets are fully paid up, in the coming future there stands a good possibility of Indian Cos. raising share capital by means of issuing partly paid shares for eg. the DLF issue, ICICI Bank. The benefits in theory that is, we all know are that the companies are able to facilitate easier subscriptions, however for some reason Indian investors resist subscribing partly paid shares. Below is the explanation that holds partly paid shares in a better light as against what is generally conceived by general retail investors (RI) and why subscribing to partly paid shares (PPS) might in certain instances be a superior option to subscribing to the fully paid share (FPS).

To facilitate easy understanding we shall take ICICI Bank’s issue with its characteristics.

Now, ICICI under its partly paid scheme allowed an upfront payment of Rs.250 on application + Rs.250 at the time of allotment, further the partly paid shares would list in close proximity with the other FPO shares allotted. Below is illustrated the pricing of the PPS assuming that the PPS and the FPS list in close proximity.

As the issue was sold to retailers at Rs.890, the RIs would have to pay Rs.500 within a month’s time and the balance within 6 months time period. What happens is because of this the RI is left with a cash of Rs.390 lying with him for 6 months unlike the RI who applied for the FPS had put in Rs.890 all at once! So there is a case of interest earning for the PPS Retail investor. The PPS retail Investor would have to pay Rs.390 at the end of 6 months so, he would make availability of that much only at the end of 6 months, this is by depositing Rs.373 today that will become Rs.390 at the end of 6 months at 9% annualized or 4.5% half yearly. So what this means is that the PPS RI pays actually Rs.250 (at the time of application) + Rs.250 (the amount of allotment money can be discounted as there would be a time lag of 15 days though this makes sense only if the amount involved is meaty) + Rs.374 (Today’s Value of Rs.390 receivable at the end of 6 months) = Rs.873 to convert his PPS into a FPS. Hence while his counterpart has paid Rs.890, the PPS RI actually saves Rs.17 due to the option chosen by him and that to, to own practically the same share as the FPS Retail Investor!

Now skeptics may argue that dividend would possibly be paid on the Equity Share and the PPS RI would not get dividend, this though is true but the fact of the matter is that the ICICI Bank PPS option calls for Rs.9 of the F.V. of Rs.10 share in the first go and hence as dividend would be paid on F.V. of equity share the PPS RI just loses Rs.1 F.V. on which he would have got dividend, last year’s dividend was Rs.10 per share and this further assuming a Rs.12 on the Rs.10 F.V.(For the sake of argument Rs.12 has been taken, though it is a little on the higher side as the share capital now stands increased by 20%) the PPS RI stands to lose Rs.1.2 for the Rs.1 of value that is outstanding, moreover this dividend is for an entire year so theoretically he would miss out on Rs.0.6 dividend divided by two (As Rs.1.2 is for the full year and we assume that the company declares dividend in the middle of the year and hence Rs.0.6 for the half year), this Rs.0.6 actually would have to be brought to today’s terms by discounting it at 9% annualized that brings it to Rs.0.56. Hence, for the ICICI bank issue it can safely be argued that the dividend amount hypothetically forgone would be minimal and hence not material, provided the investment is not huge.

Having assumed the fact above that the RI would hold the PPS till call, we shall now proceed to value the share at the time of listing. As the PPS RI would be getting a benefit of Rs.16.50 (Interest earned – Dividend foregone) if this amount is paid to the RI on the day of listing he should therefore sell! Why? The chart below explains…

Chart I


Price of FPS at a point of time (Say)

830


(A)

Theoretical Listing of PPS (less Rs.390)

440






(a)

Balance to be paid Value of PPS

390



Invested amt at 0 date which becomes RS.390 after 6 months

373




(B)

Interest earned on 390 at PV terms

17







Assumed Dividend on FPS for Yr

12.00



Dividend Lost for Yr

1.20


(C)

P.V. of Lost Dividend for 1/2 Yr

0.57






(A)+(B)-(C)

Minimum Traded Value of PPS

456












If at Rs. (C)

PV Payable (D) = (a) - (C) + (B)

Cost of Share (C + D)

Beneficial for


600

374

974

Seller







576

374

950

Neutral







435

374

809

Buyer








The above aspect of discounting would also hold true during the listed period of the PPS as during this stretch of 6 months there would be in most probability arbitrage situations wherein the theoretical value as per discounting and the traded price of the PPS would be in disequilibrium due to demand and supply factors – for example FII’s interest, shortage of fully paid shares. Thus, one can make use of the above shown discounting to determine the fair value of the PPS vis-à-vis the FPS and make a shift into the undervalued option of the two types of Shares. However it is to be noted that the discounting difference would reduce as the time of the final call approaches and the difference in the price of the FPS and the PPS will at a point of time be only the balance payable call of Rs.390 and hence arbitrages possibilities may be very less and very low.

Now the other factors that would help the RI is that his % return on the amount invested would be higher than his counterpart who had been allotted the FPS {Chart II}. Moreover in case of a fall in prices in the 6 month period, the ratio of return of PPS/FPS which occurs if there a positive return is not the same in case of a downfall in prices i.e. the magnitude of the gain ratio is not the same as the magnitude of the loss, hence the loss ratio is comparatively lesser to the Gain ratio.

It is assumed that:

(I) For Income Tax purposes this income is assessed under the head Profit Gains from Business or Profession or both the buyer and the seller are either short term traders i.e. their holding the stock for a period less than a year and hence no Long term Capital Gains Vs. Short term Capital Gains situation arises, however if one investor is in it for the short term and the other for long term, comparison would have to be made against (a) the lowered gain % of the short term investor à the capital gain reduced by 10% (the short term Capital Gains tax is 10%) with (b) the full gain of the long term investor as there is no capital gains tax on securities held for more than a year.

(II) Selling Price = Traded Price (-) 0.5% for Brokerage Costs and STT

(III)The PPS have been assumed to list at the minimum traded value for a PPS i.e. traded price of FPS (-) Rs.373 (Present Value of Rs.390).

Chart II

Optimistic I

Traded Price

Selling Price

Cost

Return

PPS/ FPS Return

FPS

950

945

890

6.2%

2.36

Hence, PPS

576

573

500

14.7%







Optimistic II

Traded Price

Selling Price

Cost

Return

PPS/ FPS Return

FPS

900

896

890

0.6%

7.64

Hence, PPS

526

524

500

4.7%







Pessimistic I

Traded Price

Selling Price

Cost

Return

PPS/ FPS Return

FPS

835

831

890

-6.6%

-1.24

Hence, PPS

461

459

500

-8.2%







Pessimistic II

Traded Price

Selling Price

Cost

Return

PPS/ FPS Return

FPS

800

796

890

-10.6%

-1.44

Hence, PPS

426

424

500

-15.2%

Hence, one can see that the PPS option is actually a better option to invest in an IPO/ FPO of a company, albeit the company issuing the share should be expected to list strongly/ above cut off else the loss ratio % under the PPS option would accentuate as compared to the gain.

Word & Excel files shared on http://www.4shared.com/dir/3778361/647fdd10/sharing.html

A blog for all your research reports lying in the trashcan!

Greetings to all!

Well as the world's roundness shapes out and 'flattens' and information more freely accessible than ever before,this is an impromptu idea that aims to help 'recycle' your self-made research and is a thought especially for the student community who drill report after report for their Alma matter and get loaded with scores of presentations at the end of the semester!, but alas your write-ups were merely for your profs, so why not publish it? why not present it to readers who would actually be searching for your very 2 page write-up but forced to think that what they were searching for never existed! So if you want your unending hours of work to be converted into hours of continuous praise and make your work a seamless part of the plethora of global knowledge you gotta put it up! well if not here, u gotta put it somewhere as if its out somewhere, somewhere bigger than that hard disk of yours, that somewhere may stand a chance to take you report somewhere! (courtesy Googling away for your data keywords!)


So, the moot point of this blog is that all your research you thought was of no use, could actually be what someone half way across the globe was looking for! Post your stuff here because research in the trash can or research in the papers, research always has something new to it. Your piece of paper could well be what that Wall Street Investment consultant was looking for! It could be a report on a power generation project in India, a study on the changing retail spending patterns of people in developing countries or well, a report on how many girlfriends the average teenager has and strategies to target him and monetise on this!

The pinkie papers are all made by people in glass buildings and maybe they find your piece of brainstorming not 'up to' to their markup, well just maybe as we all know that if someone replaces your daily column or makes an effort to make it better whose job is at stake? While I'm not painting all the editorials in the same color, I don't think one could be wrong if said that somewhere in the GB's of content sometimes good write-ups do get lost.


Also this blog aims at connecting the dots...trashmen and women requiring research with other trashers who have the required research albeit in their own customised manner. If you want info on a particular topic put up your query as a thread so that a Mr. Singh could remotely assist a Mr. John Doe and at the same time Mr. Singh and his stuff would be on net for all.

So Commencez mes amis!